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Deutsche Post DHL Group has reported that the DHL Global Trade Barometer (GTB) is predicting that global trade growth will continue to accelerate over the next three months.

Given the recent spate of international tariffs and counter-tariffs, this may come as a surprise to some – but it does perhaps show the underlying strength of cross-border trade.

In a statement issued today (27 June), Deutsche Post DHL said: “Compared to the previous release in March, the overall GTB index rose by one point, now standing at 67 points. According to the GTB methodology, an index value above 50 signals a positive growth forecast. The increase is notable because the data on which the DHL Global Trade Barometer is based show no impact of the current increase in international trade disputes. The rise in the overall index was primarily driven by a slight increase for containerized ocean freight, which has now reached an index value of 64 points (March: 63). The index for global air trade remained unchanged at 70 points.

“Geography-wise, the global improvement was mainly driven by more optimistic outlooks for China and South Korea. The trade forecast for the US has also improved slightly. The positive impact by these three countries was partially offset by reduced outlooks for India, Japan and the UK. Despite a strong decline by 5 points in the outlook for India, the country still has the highest forecast for overall trade growth with 79 points. In contrast, the UK has the least favorable outlook with now 57 index points, down 4 points compared to March. Germany remains somewhat in between: a significant increase in air trade by 3 points is offset by a 1 point decline ocean trade. This amounts to an unchanged overall forecast for Germany – which is still markedly positive with an index value of 64.

“With respect to individual industries, the outlook for Machinery Parts and Components improved most, followed by Consumer Goods and High Tech. Moreover, all industries included in the DHL Global Trade Barometer continue to have a positive trade outlook, except Basic Raw Materials, for which the GTB predicts a significant decline in global trade.”

 

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